The European steel industry recovery remains slow - steel, steel, price - iron and steel industry
Recently released a report entitled "2009 ~ 2011, the economy, and Steel Market Outlook" report. The report shows that the third quarter of 2009, signs of economic recovery in Europe, but the slow pace of recovery in the fourth quarter, and accompanied by considerable uncertainty. Eurofer European GDP expected to fall 4% this year, next year will grow by 0.8%. Eurofer Director General Gordon? Mo Fate said: "Although the European economy may have turned the corner and the EU steel market will remain weak at present."
2009 second quarter, compared to the first quarter of EU GDP fell 0.3% in the first quarter decline of 2.4%. The whole of Europe, each country's situation is different. Germany and France quarterly GDP growth of 0.3% in the chain are, mainly because of the German private industry and public spending have increased, a trade has grown rapidly in France, the two largest EU economies, the recovery faster than expected. Meanwhile, other countries such as Spain, Bulgaria, Romania and the Baltic States and other European emerging economies is far from out of the haze crisis.
However, in the third quarter, the EU economy seems to have bottomed out. Since the summer of this year, the global and the European Union switch to a good signal emerging economies, which also makes the EU GDP is expected to grow again. Consumers, businesses, service providers, retailers expect the market generally improved. In September, the European Union's economic indicators continue upward trend. In August, the euro zone manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) rose to 48.2 for the 14 months to the highest. Although the index is well below the recent long-term average, but from the beginning of the year, the indicators are rising steadily. These data indicate the economy may start in the third quarter growth, but still shows the overall uncertainty in the pace of recovery will be slow, and accompanied by a high degree of uncertainty.
Within the EU, the biggest concern is the potential burden of unemployment will impede economic growth. EU-27 unemployment rate in August rose to 9.1% in the euro zone and even reached 9.6% in March 1999 was the highest since. 2010, the unemployment rate will continue to rise. End of the year, many government-funded short-term work and labor and social security network will be closed, so that by early 2010, will inevitably increase unemployment. This will also affect personal consumption rebounded from the lows of this year.
Present, the EU steel industry prospects for the region (such as the automotive industry and construction) is still low. Although the financial markets stabilize, many companies are still not easy to raise funds. While some stock to add, industrial orders remain weak. The second quarter of this year, the EU steel industry continued to fall in the first half year production fell nearly 23%. Weak demand, tight credit, making a substantial reduction of industrial activity, market instability has also led to the downstream processing industry consumes only inventory to maintain production. Expected fourth quarter, the overall situation to be slightly better but still sluggish. Since July, the new industrial orders began to rise slightly early this year lows. The latest manufacturing PMI index, after several months of production will rise, which will make this year the steel industry's decline was narrowed to 18%. The report predicts that next year the situation is getting better and better love. Second quarter of 2010, European production will increase again, but will have to wait until 2011, more significant recovery in output.
In the first half of 2009, weakness in the European steel industry, the steel supply chain inventory clear the backlog, apparent consumption of steel fell 45% compared to same period last year. In the third quarter, the apparent consumption of steel has dropped by nearly 32%. However, despite weak demand, but stocks improved. Some customers started cautiously returned to the market, added inventory, order began to stabilized steel increased. High inventory of the situation will remain until 2010. 2011, steel industry will be picking up again, steel demand will increase, apparent consumption may increase 7.5%.
Far this year, the import of steel in Europe than the same period in 2007 and 2008 substantially reduced. The second quarter, the European steel imports up sharply 54% in the first half fell 45%; second quarter, exports fell 14% in the first half fell 18%. Expected this year, EU-27 imports from third countries, the amount of steel will decline 40%, 24% growth next year. Expected export growth in the fourth quarter, but rebound slightly. According to the latest European Union steel industry forecast, the European Union next year, steel exports increased by only 1% growth in 2011 or 7%, which depends on the global market recovery.
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